Establishing market readiness through accurate soil modeling

As carbon markets and policy frameworks continue to evolve, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the soil model you choose today has a direct impact on program credibility, cost, and long-term readiness for emerging frameworks like the EU’s Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF).

In a recent Regrow webinar, experts from Regrow and DG CLIMA shared practical guidance on how companies and project developers should be thinking about soil modeling right now. Not in theory, but in real-world program design. Below are a few of the core takeaways from the discussion.

Fit for purpose matters more than outputs alone

‍Not all soil models are designed to answer the same questions. While Tier 1 and Tier 2 approaches can support high-level footprinting, Tier 3 biogeochemical models are essential for carbon removals. These models capture the dynamic interactions between climate, soils, crops, and management practices over time. This is critical for estimating durable, defensible removals.

Calibration, validation, and uncertainty are non-negotiable

‍Credible soil models must be independently validated and paired with clear uncertainty accounting. Rather than producing a single, precise-looking number, robust models generate a range of outcomes and apply conservative thresholds. This approach ensures that any issued credits or reported outcomes reflect real, defensible impact rather than optimistic assumptions.

Accuracy and cost are directly linked through uncertainty

‍Uncertainty isn’t just a scientific consideration; it has real financial implications for credits and programs. Higher uncertainty reduces issued credits, and as carbon value increases, uncertainty deductions can materially affect ROI. This reinforces the business case for investing in higher-quality data and modeling rigor. It also reinforces the need to quantify and reduce uncertainty as programs scale.

Don’t wait for perfect policy

Practice should lead policy. Programs built today using validated models, transparent uncertainty treatment, and strong scientific foundations are best positioned to align with future frameworks as they emerge while delivering resilience and supply-chain benefits now.

As policy clarity continues to develop, companies that invest early in robust, fit-for-purpose soil modeling will be better prepared to scale credible programs with confidence. 

See the full webinar recording below, and reach out to us if you’d like to learn more about choosing soil models.